National Restaurant Association Report 2025
The State of the Restaurant Industry 2025 report by the National Restaurant Association provides a comprehensive outlook on restaurant performance, sales forecasts, workforce developments, technology adoption, and consumer behavior patterns shaping the year ahead.
Overview
The report is based on surveys from operators and consumers across six key categories—family dining, casual dining, fine dining, quick service, fast casual, and coffee/snack shops. It also includes analysis from the Association’s economists using federal data and proprietary modeling.
2025 Economic and Sales Outlook
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Total Industry Sales are projected to reach $1.5 trillion in 2025, up about 4% from 2024, buoyed by steady job growth and continued consumer demand.
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Operators remain cautiously optimistic: 8 in 10 expect 2025 sales to be the same or better than 2024, though nearly half anticipate more intense competition.
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Top challenges include rising labor (96%) and food costs (95%), with inflation and energy costs remaining secondary but significant burdens.
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Almost 30% of operators plan to expand, primarily in the limited-service segment.
Consumer and Market Trends
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Value remains central. 95% of operators say customers are more price-conscious than ever; nearly half plan new discounts or deals.
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Experience over price. 9 in 10 consumers say socializing drives restaurant visits, and most rate experience higher than meal cost. Cleanliness and friendly staff rank as the top experience factors.
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Off-premises demand continues to grow — 66% of consumers want more takeout options, and many are open to meal kits, bundles, and subscription programs.
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On-premises traffic is also rebounding; 70% of operators rate it as more vital than off-premises business for 2025 success.
Workforce Insights
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The labor shortage is easing: only 32% of operators report being understaffed, down from 78% in 2021.
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The industry will add 200,000 jobs in 2025, though full-service employment remains below pre-pandemic levels.
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Teens and young adults now make up 40% of the workforce, reflecting renewed participation in restaurant jobs.
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Recruiting success mainly comes from employee referrals and online job postings, especially for part-time and flexible roles.
Operational and Technology Trends
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Nearly all operators face elevated operating costs, with food and labor up over 30% since 2019.
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Cost management responses include menu changes (54%), fewer employees (40%), and reduced hours (33%).
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Technology adoption is accelerating:
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65% plan investments in digital marketing,
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58% in loyalty programs,
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49% in contactless ordering/payment, and
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28% intend to explore AI integration.
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These digital tools improve efficiency and customer engagement, especially among younger demographics.
Menu and Culinary Trends
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“What’s Hot 2025” highlights strong interest in Southeast Asian cuisines (Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino), value deals, and functional beverages promoting wellness.
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Top 10 overall trends include sustainability, cold brew, hot honey, and fermented foods.
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Snacking culture is rising: 64% of adults say they substitute meals with snacks.
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Consumers are also drawn to local sourcing, with 64% calling it important because it supports community farms.
Alcohol and Beverage Insights
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Restaurants remain key discovery venues—57% of adults learn about new drinks from restaurants.
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Interest is rising in non-alcoholic and wellness-oriented beverages, while operators plan to expand both traditional (beer, wine, cocktails) and low/no-alcohol offerings.
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Events drive engagement: 7 in 10 adults would attend tastings or pairing dinners, and 39% of adults 21+ would take cocktail-making classes.
Key Takeaways
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The 2025 industry picture is one of steady growth amid tight margins and shifting consumer expectations.
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Operators who balance value with experience, invest in technology, and diversify their offerings—from loyalty programs to wellness menus—are set to lead the market.
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The report concludes that restaurants remain a vital, adaptive part of American life, innovating to meet consumers’ evolving economic and social needs.
What About AI?
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has had a concrete and fast-growing effect on the restaurant industry in 2025, transforming operations, staffing, and customer engagement across both full-service and limited-service sectors.
- Example case study — Restaurant POS ROI — Reduced Labor, More Profit and More Sales — Three examples with Clover POS and Samsung kiosks. Primary software by Nanonation (they do Coinstar too fyi*)
- Menu Boards Commentary – Acrelec on Dynamic Digital Menus CEO Thibaud Denolle of Acrelec talks about the new dynamics of digital menu boards. No more “one menu fits all”.
- SoundHound AI and Acrelec Partner for Next Generation of AI-Powered Drive-Thrus. Nice Burger King demo + Wendys is now Acrelec (kicked out former supplier)
Efficiency and Productivity Gains
AI adoption is directly improving operational efficiency. About 69% of operators who added new technology in the past 2–3 years—much of it AI-driven—say their restaurants became more efficient and productive, with automation used for scheduling, ordering, and kitchen operations.
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Full-service restaurants (74%) reported the largest gains, citing streamlined workflows and data-driven menu adjustments.
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Limited-service restaurants (63%) benefited most from AI in order management and digital transactions.
Workforce and Labor Impacts
AI has reshaped, but not replaced, human jobs in 2025.
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Only 13% of operators reported permanently eliminating any positions because of automation.
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74% said technology augments, not replaces, labor, using AI for predictive scheduling, demand forecasting, and automated inventory management.
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Roughly 29% of restaurants found AI and automation helpful in training employees (e.g., through adaptive learning systems), while another 15% said AI improved recruiting and retention by identifying best-fit candidates for open roles.
Customer Experience Enhancements
Restaurants increasingly use AI tools for personalization and engagement.
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About 40% of operators said AI-enabled digital systems increased customer satisfaction, especially with recommendation engines, tailored offers, and loyalty program optimization.
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Dynamic pricing powered by AI—used by 28% of operators—is helping balance demand during off-peak hours.
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Chatbots and virtual assistants are being integrated into restaurant apps to manage reservations, payments, and order tracking in real time.
Menu and Operations Innovation
AI assists operators in menu optimization by analyzing order data and reviewing plate costs. This improved profit margins without compromising variety.
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More than half of full-service operators (54%) used AI-based menu analysis to control food costs and waste.
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In supply chain planning, AI forecasting tools reduced overordering and helped mitigate price volatility in 2025’s inflationary environment.
Investment and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, 28% of all restaurant operators plan to invest further in AI integration in 2025, while 22% plan to explore augmented reality tools for employee training or marketing.
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These investments are concentrated in customer analytics, AI-driven marketing, and smart back-office systems.
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The industry views AI as a complementary technology—critical for sustainability, cost control, and experience personalization—rather than a full automation replacement.
Real Effects Summary
In 2025, AI’s measurable outcomes in restaurants include:
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30–70% gains in process efficiency.
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10–20% reduction in labor strain through optimized workflows.
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15% rise in digital customer engagement and satisfaction scores.
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Early movement toward predictive analytics in menus, staffing, and sales forecasting.
Overall, the real impact of AI in restaurants by 2025 is one of augmentation and optimization, not disruption. It makes operations leaner, insights sharper, and hospitality more personal—anchoring human service with intelligent systems that quietly manage the background complexity of modern dining.
State of Restaurant Industry Resource Links
- Are you a member of National Restaurant Association? Be smart and join
- PDF ($350 via NRA)– State of the Restaurant Industry 2025-compressed
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Top 50 Point-of-Sales Systems Market Data Report
